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"I'll be sitting in this office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, adding that if our interview proceeded smoothly, he might invite us into Number 10 for a follow-up conversation in 2026.

There is never truly break for those in the top job. Shortly before we sat down, Starmer had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to decipher precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his close ally, US President Donald Trump, had just targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was much longer than usual, had finished, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year commences, Sir Keir appears to have had something of a reboot. Perhaps even just some a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly seemed to have left him in a more positive mood than at the saggy conclusion of 2025, a dreadful political year for him.

But are he and his supporters being unrealistic if they think his political fate are poised to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the leader is that numerous of his colleagues think he's not very good at his job. Several of them would sooner take a risk and remove him in 2026.

But Starmer was having none of it in the interview on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he insisted he'd be "judged at the general election", arguing nobody would take his five-year mandate from him – despite the fact that the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 may be for Labour to change its leader.

"This is the battle of our times and I intend to be at the forefront," he declared.

The May Elections

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be judged long before then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to argue, maybe excessively, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may be reluctant to admit it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would walk away, should a his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, should those elections prove disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was naturally eager for things to get better. He tried to assure the interviewer, and the nation, that this year would be a change.

The economic situation would recover in the face of rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the administration enacted during their first rocky year began to take effect.

• He vowed to shut asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, although he wouldn't put a new date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it wasn't a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western allies were now considering how to integrate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His central message is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have spoken with renewed vitality than observed from him for a some time – less tense, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering pressure from many directions for a bolder approach, with much more political vision, more urgency, more pace and more immediacy, his explanations were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political trouble, should he consider a new narrative?

No government, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for many months, has everything its own way.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because government is challenging, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister expressed regret that he regretted saying he was "delighted" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the system" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting obvious political dangers as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president entails a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be content with such action seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but the public "simply lack the full picture at the moment".

Critics called for him to denounce it before we spoke. And the administration is expected to face more pressure to give an explicit view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also consistently been bubbling pressure in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's doing that, but his new more concrete plan to integrate further with the single market – the huge economic European market – will probably elicit accusations that he is reneging on his pledge never to try to overturn the results that flowed from Brexit.

A decision to align with more of the single market will please a faction on his side of the party, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to