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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However the latest race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans improving together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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